Research

Research Agenda

The chair has the following research-agenda - for more details please visit the individual pages of our team members:

  • aging
  • mortality
  • statistical and mathematical demography
  • quantitative demography
  • demographic forecasting
  • biodemography
  • medical demography
ROMI: Rates of Mortality Improvement.

ERC Starting Grant No. 263744

Team:

  • PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR:
    • Prof. Dr. Roland Rau (Since 01/2011) 
  • RESEARCH SCIENTIST:
    • Dr. Christina Bohk-Ewald (Since 04/2011) 
  • STUDENT ASSISTANT / RESEARCH SCIENTIST:
    • Marcus Ebeling, M.Sc. (07/2011 - 07/2012)

Overview:

The ROMI Project focuses on the analysis of rates of mortality improvement. They serve as the core component to develop a novel method to forecast mortality and, ultimately, life expectancy. Furthermore, the visual display of these ROMIs can facilitate our understanding of mortality dynamics, in particular for period- and cohort effects.

Activities:

  • Christina Bohk, Roland Rau (2013): Probabilistic Mortality Forecasting with Varying Age-Specific Survival Improvements. arXiv:1311.5380v2 [stat.AP], available at: http://arxiv.org/abs/1311.5380. Last revised 13 Jan 2014
  • Christina Bohk, Roland Rau (2013): Bayesian Mortality Forecasts with a Flexible Age Pattern of Change for Several European Countries. Accepted at the Workshop "Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections" of UNECE, Eurostat and Istat, Rome, 29-31 October 2013
  • Roland Rau (2013): Ursachen hoher Lebenserwartung und Langlebigkeit. (Causes of High Life Expectancy and Longevity) Statistik-Tage Bamberg-Fürth 2013. Ursachen und Folgen des demographischen Wandels, 25-26 July 2013
  • Roland Rau, Christina Bohk, Magdalena M. Muszy?ska, James W. Vaupel (2013): Visual Explanations for Diverging Mortality Trends in High-Income Countries. Accepted in Session 03-01: "Multiple faces of the health transition" at the XXVII IUSSP International Population Conference, Busan, South Korea, August 2013
  • Christina Bohk, Roland Rau (2013): Simultaneous Modeling of Heterogeneous Subpopulations within one Framework. Accepted in Session 17-07: "Advances in population projections" at the XXVII IUSSP International Population Conference, Busan, South Korea, August 2013
  • Roland Rau, Christina Bohk, Magdalena M. Muszy?ska, James W. Vaupel (2013): Rates of Mortality Improvement on the Lexis Surface. Visualizing Age-, Period- and Cohort-Effects. Accepted in Session 87 "Age, Period, Cohort Trends in Health and Mortality" at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New Orleans, USA, 11 April 2013
  • Christina Bohk, Roland Rau (2013): Correlatedness of Mortality Assumptions in a Probabilistic Population Projection Model. Accepted in Poster Session 9 at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New Orleans, USA, 13 April 2013
  • Roland Rau (2013): Oldest-Old Mortality - Germany in International Context. Annual Meeting of the German Demographic Society ("DGD Jahrestagung"), Berlin, Germany, 06 March 2013 (in German)
  • Christina Bohk, Roland Ewald, Roland Rau (2012): Towards a Generalized Subpopulation Support for Stochastic Population Projections. Poster presented at the Winter Simulation Conference, Berlin, Germany, December 2012
  • Christina Bohk, Roland Rau (2012): Analyzing the impact of mortality assumptions on projection outcome with the Probabilistic Population Projection Model. Paper presented in Session 75 "Projections and population models" at the European Population Conference, Stockholm, Sweden, 15 June 2012
  • Christina Bohk, Roland Rau (2012): Why Probabilistic Population Projections can hardly be evaluated. Poster presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, San Francisco, USA, 04 May 2012
  • Christina Bohk, Roland Rau (2011): Capturing Future Mortality's Uncertainty in the Probabilistic Population Projection Model. Presented at the Workshop "Working Group on Health, Morbidity and Mortality" of the European Association for Population Studies, Vienna, Austria, 01/02 September 2011